1o stocks to watch out for in 2010

1o stocks to watch out for in 2010

Markets have run up a lot over the last couple of months and valuations are also looking a bit on the higher side. However, boom or bust notwithstanding, there are always some stocks with high potential for growth accompanied by moderate risk. We just need to keep our eyes open to track the good ones and stay invested patiently till we get a good return. For, patience is needed to last out, particularly in a market where the excitement quotient is lacking.

There are also many other stocks which might be trading at discounted valuations compared to their peers, and show the potential of a lot of upside from the current level. Some of such stocks also look lucrative for a longer period of time. Based on the recommendations of some of the nation’s top stock analysts, we take a look at 12 high-potential stocks which may be good investment bets for 2010.

1) SBI

State Bank of India (SBI) is one of the best proxies to play the beginning of a new growth cycle in the Indian economy. Loan growth for banking system is currently at a multi-year low. We expect growth to recover from 4QFY10. As GDP growth remains strong at ~7% and is likely to accelerate towards 2HFY11, demand for bank credit will increase. The next 3-5 years will mark a period of high loan growth for banks, with stable interest rates post 2HFY11. SBI is well poised to benefit from this due to its huge network, adequate capitalization and strong balance sheet. SBI has huge liquidity in its balance sheet, deployed at low rates. In a period of high loan growth, therefore, its earnings will be higher. We believe yields on loans have bottomed out in 2QFY10, but the benefits of deposit re-pricing would continue through FY11. Operating leverage will give a significant boost to RoE, as costs will grow slower than income.

Over the last six years, SBI’s cost to average assets has declined from 2.4% to 1.9%. Over the last 12 months, asset quality concerns have risen due to restructured assets. We believe these concerns will diminish, going forward. In 4QFY10, concerns on inflation and the resultant reaction from RBI would be a key risk to SBI’s near-term stock performance. We are building in an increase of 100bp in CRR through FY11. On a consolidated basis, we expect earnings CAGR of 22% over FY09-11. We expect consolidated RoE to be 17-18%. We believe that the long-term positives far outweigh the near-term concerns of slow growth and tight monetary policy. We rate SBI as one of the best bets in Indian markets over the next 1-3 years.

(Recommended by Rajat Rajgarhia, Head–Research, Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd)

2) Cadila Healthcare

Cadila Healthcare is one of the top 5 pharma companies in India and has transformed itself from a pure domestic play to a global generic company with presence in the US, France, Brazil and Japan, among others. 37% (16% in FY05) of its income is from international market.

Domestic business: The group has workforce of 2,700 in India with focus on cardiovascular, GI and woman’s healthcare. It has 16 brands amongst the top 300 pharma brands in India. The company is now aggressively moving from acute therapy management to lifestyle management. We expect the domestic business to grow at 13%.

International business: Going forward, international business will be the key growth driver. We expect the international business to grow at a CAGR of 28% in FY08-10 with the US growing at 30% while France and Brazil at 22% each. We expect the US operations alone to contribute $125m to the revenue in FY10.

Financials: We expect sales to improve from Rs 2862 cr in FY09 to Rs 4106 cr in FY11. We expect the EBITDA to improve from Rs 540 cr to Rs 820 cr in FY11. The EBITDA margins will improve from 18.9% to 20% during the same period. We expect PAT to move up from Rs 303 cr to Rs 573 cr in FY11. We expect EPS for FY11 to be Rs 51 and the ROE and ROCE ratios at 30% and 27%, respectively. We are extremely confident on Cadila’s quality of management, its domestic and international marketing strategy and see a lot of upside in the stock from the current level.

(Recommended by Ajay Parmar, Head–Institutional Equities, Emkay Global Financial Services)

3) Lupin

Target Price Rs 1,863

Lupin is one of the best plays in the generic space given its strong execution capabilities, improving financial performance and diversified business model. The high-margin branded generic business has been the key differentiator for Lupin in the Indian pharma space. The company has also cemented its position in this segment by acquiring rights for two products viz: Allernaze and Antara in last 6 months. Further, Lupin has been among the few Indian companies which have built a formidable presence in the second largest pharmaceutical market in the world – Japan - with Kyowa’s acquisition in FY2008.

On valuation front, the stock is trading at a discount of 10-25% to its larger peers, which we believe is unwarranted given the scale achieved by the company in the last few years.

(Recommended by Sarabjit Kour Nangra, VP-Research, Angel Broking. The Price Target is for 15 months.)

4) Axis Bank

Target Price Rs 1,454

Axis Bank’s Rs 3,800cr QIP strongly positions it for market share gains as GDP and capital market activity revives, with at least 500bp higher growth than the industry over FY2010-12E (23% vs. 18% CAGR), especially as network expansion (200+ additions, about 20-25% yoy) remains strong. Fee income contribution has been a meaningful 1.7% of assets (almost twice the level in PSBs) over FY2007-09 and is expected to gain traction again going forward (29% CAGR over FY2009-12E). The stock is also trading at attractive valuations -- almost 35% discount to HDFC Bank -- despite similar earnings quality, profitability and growth expectations.

(Recommended by Sarabjit Kour Nangra, VP-Research, Angel Broking. The Price Target is for 15 months.)

5) M&M

A strong management, diversified product portfolio, fair debt-equity position and robust balance sheet make M&M one of the best stocks in the automobile sector. Its strategic diversification in the lucrative aerospace and defence sectors are likely to benefit it significantly in the long run. With the revival in global auto sector, the core business continues to remain on a strong footing. The tractor business is likely to continue its strong growth into H2FY10.

The stock still trades at discounted valuations compared to its peers. Further, its investments in others group companies provide decent upside potential to its valuations.

(Recommended by Ashish Kapur, CEO, Invest Shoppe India Ltd)

6) Tata Steel

The metal sector has shown surprising rally and we believe this to continue in 2010 as well. Tata Steel remains one of the best stocks to bet in the steel sector. The company has already announced aggressive capex plans of Rs 1500 crore in H2FY10 and around Rs 4500 crore in FY11 mainly for expansion in Jamshedpur.

It maintains volume guidance of 20-25% growth. Corus is likely to operate at 100% capacity by March 2010 which will further boost the sentiments for the stock.

(Recommended by Ashish Kapur, CEO, Invest Shoppe India Ltd)

7) Rallis India

Target Price Rs 1,401

Rallis India is the second largest player in the domestic pesticide market. Going ahead, we expect contract manufacturing to drive the company's next level of growth particularly with its new plant coming on stream by June 2010. We expect PAT to register a CAGR of 29.6% over FY2009-12E. RoCE and RoE are expected to touch level of 26.6% and 22.9% in FY2011E. Thus, on account of improving Return Ratios and higher Net Profit growth, we expect the stock to trade at higher valuations.

(Recommended by Sarabjit Kour Nangra, VP-Research, Angel Broking. The Price Target is for 15 months.)

8) Yes Bank

The bank has shown tremendous performance in terms of growth in advances. The core fee income has also increased on the back of healthy growth in transaction banking and financial advisory segment. There are healthy signs of growth in this segment as a result of improvement in capital markets. Further, improved cost ratios and stabilised asset quality augurs well for the bank.

Yes Bank’s aggressive target to double the branches by 2011 and proposed entry into asset management and broking business make it a good investment bet for 2010.

(Recommended by Ashish Kapur, CEO, Invest Shoppe India Ltd)

9) Sun Pharma

Sun Pharma has exhibited one of the strongest business fundamentals in a difficult sector over the past few years. Also, the completion of Taro acquisition is likely to boost its geographical presence and revenues. Buying Taro would help Sun Pharma expand its market reach in the US, where demand for generics will grow as healthcare costs surge and more blockbuster drugs lose patent protection. Its healthy balance sheet and robust product pipeline with 108 ANDA pending approval are positive triggers for the company.

In the high value generic market of the US, the company is expected to become a respected generic company with a portfolio comprising both of complex and simple-to-file generics, building an edge with technology and the cost advantage of vertical integration.

(Recommended by Ashish Kapur, CEO, Invest Shoppe India Ltd)

10) IVRCL Infra

Target Price Rs 439

IVRCL Infra, one of the key beneficiaries of infra boom in the country, is well poised to tap opportunities in growing segments of infra space (read road). Further, we are expecting huge order inflows for IVRCL going ahead on account of its change in corporate structure leading to its renewed focus on BOT space. We prefer IVRCL Infra as compared to its peers owing to its sound order book (>Rs20,000cr or 3.1x FY2010E revenues), superior execution track record (CAGR of 45% over FY2004-09) and attractive valuations (trading at 11x after adjusting for its investments).

Recommended by Sarabjit Kour Nangra, VP-Research, Angel Broking. The Price Target is for 12 months.)

source-et

Goldman is US' IPO manager No 1

Goldman is US' IPO manager No 1

NEW YORK: Goldman Sachs Group won the biggest share of the $923-million in fees from the US initial public offerings this year, while Citigroup out of the top five after its revenue plummeted more than 50%.

Goldman Sachs made $191.6 million helping take 16 companies from Hyatt Hotels Corp to Cobalt International Energy public this year, an increase of more than 60% from 2008, preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg show. Citigroup’s share of fees dropped to $68.3 million, making the New York-based lender the only underwriter that participated in at least $1 billion worth of sales to suffer a decline in revenue.

Banks increased fees for initial share sales by 62% to 5.63% from the lowest level on record, even as the amount that US companies raised from IPOs decreased by almost half to $16.4 billion this year, according to Bloomberg data. While the biggest surge in stocks since the Great Depression revived the IPO market and helped enrich bankers, almost 40% of offerings sold by underwriters in the second half of 2009 have left buyers with losses.

“It was sort of like a feeding frenzy, whatever deal came people wanted to buy it,” New York-based head of the equities syndicate for the Americas at Barclays, which climbed into the top 10 among underwriters for the US IPOs after doubling its share of offerings this year. In the second half, “there were some aggressive valuations that people have pushed back on”, as the performance of IPOs suffered, he said. :

IPOs are among the most lucrative advisory businesses on the Wall Street, with bankers extracting fees from companies that seek initial offerings that are more than 10 times higher than those from mergers and acquisitions or corporate-bond sales.

During the five-year bull market for stock prices that ended in 2007, underwriters on average kept 5.93% of the money raised from IPOs the by US companies, Bloomberg data show.

This year, fees averaged about 5.63% of proceeds, up from a record low of 3.48% in 2008, when the worst financial crisis since the 1930s sparked the collapse of New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings in September and forced the government to give nine of the largest US banks $125 billion in bailout money, fee data compiled by Bloomberg since 1999 show.

The higher fees helped to limit the decline in revenue from the US IPOs in 2009 to about 10% from $1.03 billion last year. The amount raised by the US companies going public slumped 45% from $29.6 billion, as sales evaporated in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman’s failure froze credit markets.

The drought lasted until September as an average of two US companies a month went public, the slowest pace since at least 1995, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The IPO market then rebounded, as companies took advantage of a 67% advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from its 12-year low in March. Thirty-two companies completed offerings since the start of September, equal to 68% of the 47 initial sales in 2009, Bloomberg data show.

source-et

One More Power Sector IPO-JINDAL POWER

One More Power Sector IPO-JINDAL POWER

Jindal Power files IPO prospectus to raise Rs 7,200 cr

NEW DELHI: Naveen Jindal-led Jindal Power today said it has filed draft prospectus with market regulator SEBI to raise Rs 7,200 crore through its maiden public issue.

Jindal Power has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), today," JPL said in a statement.

Jindal Power, which has set up the country's first mega power project - the 1,000-MW O P Jindal Super Thermal Power Plant at Raigarh in Chhattisgarh, is a subsidiary of Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (JSPL).

The company would utilise the issue proceeds to part finance the construction and development of various thermal power projects, besides for general corporate purpose.

The equity shares of the company are proposed to be listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India.

JM Financial Consultants, Enam Securities, Goldman Sachs (India) Securities would be among the Book Running Lead Managers (BRLMs) to the issue.

Earlier this month the board of JSPL had decided to go for Jindal Power's IPO for raising up to Rs 10,000 crore.

JSPL is part of the USD 12 billion (over Rs 60,000 crore) steel-to-energy conglomerate O P Jindal Group, led by Naveen Jindal, also a Congress leader and a Member of Parliament.

Jindal Power has invested around Rs 4,500 crore for setting up the Raigarh plant, which was commissioned in record time of less than one year.

JPL is also expanding the capacity of its existing power plant at Tamnar by setting up a 2400 MW super thermal power plant at an estimated cost of USD 2.40 billion (Rs 12,000 crore).

This year has seen a spate of IPOs from power sector, including that of state-run NHPC, Indiabulls Power, Adani Power and JSW Energy. While these IPOs were well-subscribed, they had a subdued listing and are trading below issue price. JSW Energy IPO closed yesterday and is yet to be listed.

source-et

Post Office Deposit Rates ,Features & Tax Deduction

Post Office Deposit Rates ,Features & Tax Deduction

Kisan Vikas Patra

Intrest : Double in 8 yrs 8 months
Effective Intrest Rates : 8.41%
Min.Amount : Rs 100
Max.Amount : No Limit
Tax Breaks : None

Monthly Income Scheme

Intrest : 8% + 5% bonus at maturity
Tenure : 6 years
Min.Amount : Rs 1000
Max.Amount : Rs 4.5 lakh for single a/c
Rs 9 lakh for joint a/c
Tax Breaks : None

National Saving Certificate

Intrest : 8%
Effective Intrest Rates : 8.16% (semi annual compounding)
Tenure : 6 years
Min.Amount : Rs 100
Max.Amount : No Limit
Tax Breaks : None

Public Provident Fund

Intrest : 8%
Tenure : 15-16 years
Min.Amount : Rs 500
Max.Amount : Rs 70,000 p.a
Tax Breaks : Section 80C deduction

Recuring Deposit

Intrest : 7.5%
Tenure : 5 years
Effective Intrest Rates : 8.41%
Min.Amount : Rs 10
Max.Amount : No Limit
Tax Breaks : None

Senior Citizens Saving Scheme

Intrest : 9%
Tenure : 5 years
Min.Amount : Rs 1000
Max.Amount : Rs 15 lakh
Tax Breaks : Section 80 C deduction
Min. Age : 60 years

MFs that outperformed Sensex over 5 years

MFs that outperformed Sensex over 5 years

During last one year alone, value funds like ICICI Prudential Discovery, Tata Equity PE, Templeton India Growth and UTI Master Value have delivered over 100% returns, beating the market returns of about 65%-70 % and the 82% average returns posted by the category of diversified equity schemes.

Check out Mutual Funds that outperformed Sensex over 5 years

1- Mutual Fund Scheme: ICICI Prudential Discovery

Date of Launch: July, 2004

AUM (Rs crore): 502.1

*Absolute Returns(%):

1 Year: 131.7

3 Years: 46.6

5 Years: 221.4

*Returns as on December 16 2009

2- Mutual Fund Scheme: Tata Equity PE

Date of Launch: July, 2004

AUM (Rs crore): 209.0

*Absolute Returns(%):

1 Year: 100.8

3 Years: 72.8

5 Years: 217.6

*Returns as on December 16 2009

3-Mutual Fund Scheme: Templeton India Growth

Date of Launch: August, 1996

AUM (Rs crore): 411.2

*Absolute Returns (%):

1 Year: 91.9

3 Years: 61.8

5 Years: 194.4

*Returns as on December 16 2009

4-Mutual Fund Scheme: UTI Master Value

Date of Launch: June, 1998

AUM (Rs crore): 378.8

*Absolute Returns (%):

1 Year: 104.1

3 Years: 41.3

5 Years: 123.0

*Returns as on December 16 2009

source-et

Match abandoned because of dangerous pitch

Tillakaratne Dilshan was struck a fierce blow

Tillakaratne Dilshan, Sanath Jayasuriya and Gautam Gambhir

Match abandoned after 23.3 overs Sri Lanka 83 for 5

It was surprising that it took them 23.3 overs to call off play because of dangerous conditions. On a Kotla pitch where the bounce - from similar lengths - varied from shin to shoulder in as short a spell as three deliveries, Sri Lanka had reason to be thankful that they got away with just two hits on the body that needed attention.

At around 11.20am, one length delivery from the debutant Sudeep Tyagi reared up to almost clear MS Dhoni behind the stumps. The Sri Lankan batsmen had had enough by then. Kumar Sangakkara, dismissed already, and Mahela Jayawardene, out because of a groin injury, were seen waving from outside the boundary, and lengthy discussions ensued.

As a result, Feroz Shah Kotla's prospects of hosting World Cup matches in 2011 hung in the balance. The ICC's latest code of conduct regarding poor pitches states that a first such breach should be met with "a suspension of the venue's international status for a period of between 12 and 24 months together with a directive for appropriate remedial action and the need for prior ICC re-accreditation as an international venue".

Sunil Gavaskar didn't seem too pleased with what he saw during his pitch report. He described the uneven sprinkling of grass on the pitch as a "hair transplant" with bald patches. When the ball hit the grassy areas it seamed and bounced, from the bald patches it died along the ground. What made it difficult for the batsmen was that the lengths from where the ball behaved so drastically different were not too far apart from each other. The moisture didn't help either.

Full of action, the 23.3 overs featured a wicket first ball; a dropped catch first ball of the second over; blows on the elbow, shoulder, fingers; frenzied running; thick edges flying past third man; and wickets for Zaheer Khan, Tyagi and Harbhajan Singh. Dhoni, coming back from a two-match ban, was stupendous behind the stumps, getting his legs together for the shooters and reacting well to the lifters.

Zaheer got just enough seam movement to crash through the gap between Upul Tharanga's bat and pad first ball of the day. Ashish Nehra could have got Tillakaratne Dilshan with the first ball he bowled, but Suresh Raina failed to hold on to a high catch at cover-point. Perhaps Dilshan would have rather that he got out then, going by the way he had to consistently drop his wrists out of the way of balls bouncing from just back of a length.

One such delivery from Nehra struck him just over the elbow guard. The way he came down, throwing his bat away immediately, it seemed a nasty blow. Dilshan got up, hit his first boundary off the 23rd ball faced, but couldn't last much longer. The ones staying low made it even tougher for him to negotiate the venomous ones.

Sanath Jayasuriya, 20 years and a day old in international cricket, fought it out despite blows on his elbow, shoulder and fingers. He played two exquisite cover-drives but was fortunate in coming back without a serious injury. In the third over of the innings, his elbow guard prevented severe damage when one lifted from just back of a length and followed him. Tyagi then showed him the vagaries of the bounce, hitting him in his shoulder in the 12th over. Four overs later, within three balls he had the batsman squatting and then nursing his finger.

Even after the players went off, it took the authorities - the umpires, the match referee, the captains, and the home association representatives - an hour and 10 minutes of debate before they officially abandoned the game. The recent history of the Kotla track had done little to recommend its hosting of another international fixture. The curators, both at the ground and the BCCI's head of pitches committee Daljit Singh, have on more than one occasion said that this is a freshly relaid pitch and will take time to settle in. Despite that, the ground hosted the Champions League T20 on low and slow tracks, and an ODI between India and Australia in October. The BCCI will be left ruing the decision of having hosted two international matches on a dodgy pitch, within two months of each other.

source-www.cricinfo.com

Dalal Street looking for reasons to go up: Motilal Oswal

Dalal Street looking for reasons to go up: Motilal Oswal

Dalal Street is still looking for reasons to go up rather than down. After losing some 800 points, the previous week and this week, the Sensex powered ahead 540 points on Wednesday and took everybody off guard. Bears scrambled for cover and calls written on the 5,000 and 5,100 strike prices on the Nifty got cut. Put call ratio also improved significantly.This means that investors should continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the upside.

The short term prospects for Indian equities still looks very good. The government announced that GDP growth in FY10 should be 7.75% –obviously the gove r n m e n t knows much more than what the markets know and hence this announcement has come as a major positive surprise causing it to make a fresh move upwards.

This also points to the fact that the third quarter and the fourth quarter are going to see pretty solid growth –maybe something like by 30-35 % or even more when compared on a year on year basis. There is the continuing important point that the base effect is going to be incredibly benign this quarter and the next, since the world economy collapsed in 3Q08.

Market generally reflects what’s happening in the real economy. After dramatic fall in 2008 and recovery in 2009; economies are stabilising across the globe and Global Financial Markets are reflecting this with positive movement. There are doubts over the strength and durability of the economic recovery but there are very few people who are ready to buy that Global economies can collapse once again.

And it is because of this reason, one can assume that 2010 will be dramatically different from 2008 and 2009 and more so from the positive side of things.It is very likely we may not see a sideways market in near to medium term. 2010 may well be year of transition...transition to stability and prosperity.

The short-term focus of world markets remains on Wall Street, the story for India continues to be much more straightforward . Investors do not have to worry about loose monetary policy gaining traction or liquidity traps, since there are no bad debt-related structural constraints in the Indian banking system.

The concerns will increasingly be about a return of inflation given the base effect of the last year.We could be reporting WPI inflation of 6.5-7 % by the end of March and this figure should taper downwards thereafter. In the interim period ,this would cause higher interest rates. If we look at history ,right from 2004 to 2007 our central bank continued to tighten monetary policy , yet the markets continued to clock newer highs.

The bottom-line is -stay invested

source-ET

3 Idiots- is one of the most entertaining films of the decade

‘3 Idiots’ is one of the most entertaining films of the decade.

3 Idiots - Movie Review

Three Point Something

Director : Rajkumar Hirani

Cast : Aamir Khan, Sharman Joshi, R Madhavan, Kareena Kapoor

Pants down and palms up! Give a high five to Rajkumar Hirani, whose formula of cocktailing entertainment with social messages has given us jaadu ki japphi and Gandhigiri in the past. His latest baby 3 Idiots isn’t exactly the cinematic ‘chamatkar’ it’s cracked up to be. It’s a frothy, feelgood, fun-filled, one-time-watch film that leaves you smiling but doubtful whether you wanna walk back in for another viewing.

Borrowing only scraps from Chetan Bhagat’s ‘Five Point Someone’, Hirani and co-writer Abhijat Joshi churn out some delectable idiotgiri, laced with juvenile humour and tear-shedding moments. The only trouble is that the film’s core message is hammered out so many times that by the end it begins to lose its punch.

Salt water is a good conductor of electricity. Everyone’s read it, but Rancho (Aamir Khan) applied it on his ‘pissed-off’ senior to escape getting ragged on his very first day of the Imperial Engineering College. An Edison-in-the-making, he believes in striving for excellence rather than success, which, in fact, is the core message of the film.

But excellence can’t be had if you strive half-heartedly or fearfully or, worst, mechanically. Thereby come in three more characters - Farhan (Madhavan) who wants to be a wild life photographer but is doing engineering to fullfil his dad’s dream; Raju (Sharman Joshi), a poor lad who’s so afraid of failure that his fear has become a self-fulfilling prophecy; and Chatur (Omi) who’s a learning machine adept at mugging up books.

On top of them is the ever grimacing professor Viru Sahastrabuddhe (Boman Irani), fondly called Virus, telling them that the world’s a rat race in which one has to step on another to get to the top. No wonder the ingenious Rancho is an oddball out in the herd. His questions perplex his professors. And his disdain for the education system that professes learning by rote makes him the arch foe of Virus. Sandwiched between the two foes is Virus’s doctor daughter Pia (Kareena Kapoor) who falls for Rancho but has to face up to her eccentric pa at home.

Hirani and Joshi take this basic story, spin it on its head, and make it a tale of a quest of Farhan and Raju for their lost friend Rancho, who disappeared after topping the college. The writer duo packs in some fine humour and drama but overshoot the mark at some places. For instance, Chatur’s convocation speech in which the word ‘Chamatkar’ is replaced by ‘Balatkar’ is a gag stretched too long. And there’s too much butt baring and dropping of pants. And the screenplay too takes a circuitous route through a funeral and a wedding, both not essential to the plot.

Despite these foibles, ‘3 Idiots’ makes for an enjoyable watch, thanks to the bonhomie cracked up on screen by Aamir, Madhavan and Sharman. Aamir’s Rancho is a bouncy, fidgety genius with a golden heart. The 44-year-old actor almost passes off as a 22-year-old collegian, bringing out in his character the juvenile buoyancy and vivacity few actors of his age can. Madhavan and Sharman give ample support from the flanks, but a word of praise needs to be reserved for Sharman who shines equally in dramatic as well as funny scenes. Kareena, sadly, has been relegated to a corner but makes her presence felt in a few well-enacted sequences, but it’s Boman Irani who comes up with the best performance in the ensemble with his brilliant portrayal of an eccentric professor. His jawline protruded, his brows pursed, his gait ungainly, his speech lisped, Irani is every bit the vile and virulent Virus he’s supposed to be.

Shantanu Moitra’s music and Muralidharan’s cinematography complement the flick well. Rajkumar Hirani spins a yarn that despite a few botches has its heart in the right place. For this alone, ‘3 Idiots’ definitely ought to be seen and enjoyed.

Rating: Three Point Something

To download songs of 3 idiots-http://www.songs.pk/indian/three_idiots3.html

source-www.apunkachoice.com , www.songs.pk

X-mas cheer on Dalal Street

X-mas cheer on Dalal Street; Sensex at 19-month high

The year to date gain has been around 80% - best annual performance in the past 18 Yrs

Indian equity indices started the festive season celebrations by recording highs. A combination of short covering and positive news helped the 50-share Nifty (^NSEI : 5178.4 +33.8) of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) to hit its 52-week high of 5,197.90 points before ending the trading session at 5,178.40, registering a gain of 0.66%, or 33.80 points. Similarly, the benchmark BSE's Sensex (^BSESN : 17360.61 +129.5) ended the trading session at 17,360.61, it's highest since May 16, 2008 after gaining 129.50 points, or 0.75%

Though the Sensex has gained 3.8% this week, the most in more than a month, the year to date gain has been around 80% & this is its best annual performance in the past 18 years, according to Bloomberg data.

The inflows from overseas investors continued to be strong and provided the surprise element. For the second consecutive day they were buyers with the amount crossing the Rs 700 crore-mark, at Rs 706.83 crore, according to provisional numbers on the stock exchanges. However, domestic institutional investors chose to book profits ahead of a four day long break by net selling equities worth Rs 111.11 crore.

Speaking about the surprise rally, Arindam Gosh, CEO, Mirae Asset Global said, "It was a combination of short covering as well as fresh buying on the back of positive news that triggered a rally." Ghosh believes that the markets have been enthused by the positive macro-economic data coming in. Manasije Mishra, MD & CEO, HSBC InvestDirect reckons, "FIIs and other investors chose to cover their short position ahead of the long holiday triggering a rally. Moreover, the market crossed two technical barriers at 5,100 and 5,180 levels, which could have triggered stop losses, again prompting investors to close their short positions."

Overall buying continued in most of the emerging markets as well. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 0.9% to 972.99 at noon in London, heading for the highest closing level in a week. China's Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.6%.

The inflows from the overseas investors in India have now touched Rs 80,500 crore in 2009 so far, compared to a net outflow of Rs 53,000 crore last year. In dollar terms, FIIs have purchased $16.8 billion worth of equities, close to the previous high of $17.2 billion in 2007. The government's move to give autonomy to the large sized public sector units to make investments overseas directly saw shares of ONGC (ONGC.NS : 1197.45 +18.5) and SAIL (SAIL.NS : 237.2 +0.4) close in the positive zone. Also, the 61% jump in foreign direct investment in the month of November, over the previous month, added to the cheer created by finance minister's statement on Wednesday about the GDP growth touching 8% levels.

Though the benchmark indices recorded impressive gains, the volume on both the exchanges fell drastically. The NSE cash segment clocked a turnover of Rs 6,460 crore, a drop of 55% over Wednesday. Thursday's volumes were rather low when compared to the average daily turnover of Rs 17,112 crore recorded during the last six months in the NSE cash segment. Elsewhere, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 0.9% to 972.99 at noon in London, heading for the highest closing level in a week. China's Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.6%, recording the highest rally amongst the global markets.

source-www.yahoo.com

European stock markets hit 2009 high

European stock markets hit 2009 high

European stock markets reached their highest levels since late 2008 on Thursday thanks to a "Santa rally" as investors wound down trading ahead of the festive break.

London's benchmark FTSE 100 index climbed 0.56 percent to end at 5,402.41 points in a shortened trading session. That was the highest level since September, 2008.

The Paris the CAC 40 edged up 0.05 percent to finish at 3,912.73 points -- its highest level since October last year. The Frankfurt market, which was shut Thursday, also hit 2009 peaks this week.

"With half a day's trading before Christmas the so-called 'Santa Rally'" continued, said ETX Capital senior trader Manoj Ladwa.

"Whether momentum can be maintained in 2010 is a tougher question," he added, with traders seeing the week's rally as a consequence of thin volumes and festive cheer.

Since striking six-year lows in March at around the 3,500-points mark, London's FTSE has soared by 55 percent in value. Since the start of 2009, it has jumped by about a fifth.

Markets worldwide slumped in early 2009 on fears about governments' ability to overcome a deep recession.

Although Britain is the last of the major economies still in recession, the country is expected to have returned to growth during the fourth quarter, or three months to December.

Across the Atlantic, Wall Street ended with modest gains Wednesday after a surprisingly weak report on US new home sales dampened optimism from strong earnings news and data showing gains in US income and spending.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.01 percent to 10,466.44 points at the closing bell, managing to hold positive for a fourth day of gains.

The technology-rich Nasdaq composite climbed 0.75 percent and the broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index added 0.23 percent.

Some early gains faded after a government report showed sales of new US homes slid 11.3 percent in November to their lowest level since April.

Michael Zoller at Moody's Economy.com said the surprisingly weak report negates several months of gains. But he said the figures may have been skewed by a government tax credit set to expire in November before Congress extended and expanded it.

Japanese stocks rose to a fresh three-month high on Thursday as commodity-related shares rallied on the back of higher oil prices and the yen's recent drop boosted exporters.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange's benchmark Nikkei-225 index closed up 1.53 percent at 10,536.92 points, the best finish since September 24.

source-http://economictimes.indiatimes.com

STOCK TIPS

STOCK TIPS

• Buy Cox & Kings with target of Rs 460 and stop loss of Rs 420, says Rakesh Bansal, technical analyst, on Zee Business.

• Buy Suzlon with target of Rs 92-97 and stop loss of Rs 81, says Husseini Wadharia, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

• Buy Bharti Airtel with target of Rs 335 where one can exit and stop loss of Rs 210, says Pakash Gaba, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

• Buy SAIL with short-term target of Rs 273, says Kiran Jadhav, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit.

• Hold Infosys with target of Rs 3000-3200 in 3-6 months, says Ashish Maheshwari of Global Capital Market on CNBC Awaaz.

• Hold NTPC with target of Rs 250 and stop loss of Rs 200, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

• Buy Atul Ltd with target of Rs 90 and stop loss of Rs 78, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

• Buy Jindal Saw with target of Rs 200 and stop loss of Rs 170, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

• Buy 3i Infotech with target of Rs 97-100 and stop loss of Rs 86.

source-www.rediff.com

Essar to become India's 3rd largest refining co

Essar to become India's 3rd largest refining co.

Ruias-owned Essar Oil (ESSAROIL.NS : 138.15 +2.8) is set to emerge as India's third largest oil refining company and one of the most complex refineries worldwide after it completes expansion of its Vadinar unit, according to an analyst report.

Essar is raising the Vadinar refinery capacity to 16 million tonnes from 10.5 million tonnes by December 2010 and further to 34 million tonnes in Phase-II expansion to be completed by December 2011, making it the country's third largest refining company after Reliance Industries (RELIANCE.NS : 1066.2 +47) and Indian Oil Corp (IOC (IOC.NS : 309.8 +4.15)).

The report, issued yesterday by local brokerage HDFC Securities, said the expansions would help the firm earn about USD 3 more on processing of every barrel of crude oil.

"While refinery expansions will result in USD 3 per barrel premium over Singapore complex GRM (gross refining margin or earnings on processing of per barrel of crude), strategic focus on product evacuation will help maintain high capacity utilization," it said.

After the expansion, Vadinar refinery in Gujarat would be able to process most of the dirty and difficult crudes that are sold at substantial discounts to premium crude like Bonny Light or Brent.

Its complexity index (a measure of the refinery's capability of process difficult crude) will rise from existing 6.1 to 11.8 in 2011-12 and to 12.8 in 2012-13. "EBITDA margins will rise from 3.1 per cent in FY09 to above 10 per cent from FY13E," the report said.

source-www.yahoo.com

Reliance Industries discovers gas in Krishna Godavari basin

Reliance discovers more gas in Krishna basin-Dhirubhai 44

Reliance Industries has struck gas for the third successive time at its exploration block in the Krishna Godavari (KG) basin, the company said on Tuesday.

RIL holds a 90 per cent stake in the block, while the remaining 10 per cent is with Britain-based Hardy Oil and Gas.

"The deep water block KG-DWN-2003/1 is located in the Krishna basin, about 45 km off the coast in the Bay of Bengal," said RIL in a statement.

The two companies had made two discoveries in May, a 9.5 trillion cubic feet of gas in the D-3 block of the KG basin and another 10.8 trillion cubic feet in the D-9 block of the KG basin.

The potential of the new discovery named "Dhirubhai 44" is still being ascertained, the statement added.

Reliance Industries has support at Rs 980: Bhambwani

Reliance Industries has support at Rs 980, says Technical Analyst, Vijay Bhambwani.

“If you are expecting the overall market to decline, RIL could actually be leading the decline from here. Some minor support would come at Rs 980 and if that is violated and if goes through convincingly, you could even see Rs 945-940 levels where a more serious support can be seen.”

He further added, “Unless and until Reliance starts trading above Rs 1,120 no buy confirmation on the technical charts is forthcoming. If you want to buy Reliance, you should buy only above Rs 1120 that would be expensive but atleast you would have overcome some resistance and you would be forcing the bears to square up their shorts, which would give it an upside momentum rather than trying to dig for a bottom which who knows could be anywhere.”

source-ET&moneycontrol

List of NSE Holidays in 2010

List of NSE Holidays in 2010

1. New Year - 1st January 2010 - Friday

2 Republic Day - 26th January 2010 - Tuesday

3 Mahashivratri - 12th February 2010 - Friday

4 Holi (2nd Day) - 1st March 2010 - Monday

5 Ram Navmi - 24th March 2010 - Wednesday

6 Good Friday - 2nd April 2010 - Friday

7 Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti - 14th April 2010 - Wednesday

8 Ramzan Id - 10th September 2010 - Friday

9 Diwali Amavasya (Laxmi Puja) - 5th November 2010 - Friday

10 Bakri-Id - 17th November 2010 - Wednesday

11 Moharum - 17th December 2010 - Friday

Twitter Is Said to Be Profitable After Making Search Agreements

Twitter Inc. will make about $25 million from Internet-search deals with Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp. announced in October, enough to push the site into profitability, people familiar with the matter said.

An agreement that made Twitter’s messages searchable on Google’s site will generate about $15 million, said the people, who asked to remain anonymous because the terms aren’t public. A similar deal with Microsoft’s Bing search engine will earn Twitter about $10 million.

The multiyear agreements will allow Twitter to make a small profit in 2009, said the people, who estimate that its operating costs are about $20 million to $25 million a year. The San Francisco-based company, which started in 2006, has about 105 employees, according to its Web site.

Until earlier this year, Twitter wasn’t even focused on revenue -- let alone profit. The company attracted millions of users with a free service that posts 140-character messages, known as tweets. Chief Executive Officer Evan Williams said two months ago that the company was spending almost all its time improving the product, rather than seeking ways to make money.

That left many analysts and investors wondering how Twitter would convert its popularity into earnings. Twitter has more than 58 million global monthly users, according to ComScore Inc. , a research firm in Reston, Virginia. The service is the third most popular social-networking site in the U.S., after Facebook Inc. and News Corp.’s MySpace.

No Comment

The company’s co-founder, Biz Stone, declined to comment on its finances, saying only that Twitter is proud of the work it accomplished in 2009.

“We’re thrilled about the partnerships we’ve formed this year and we’re looking forward to opening Twitter even more in the future,” Stone said in an e-mail.

Jane Penner, a spokeswoman for Mountain View, California- based Google , declined to comment, as did Pete Wootton, a spokesman for Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft. When the agreements were announced in October, none of the companies involved disclosed their value.

Twitter got help achieving profitability by reducing expenses, the people familiar with the situation said. The company used to pay more money to telecommunications companies for distributing its billions of tweets over wireless networks. Twitter’s popularity has given it bargaining power with phone companies, helping it renegotiate deals to bring down costs.

Workforce Costs

While telecommunication fees used to be the company’s single largest expense, employees are now the biggest line item, said one of the people. That means maintaining profitability will depend on whether Twitter keeps a lid on the size of its workforce.

The payments from google & Microsoft underscore the growing value of the data coursing through Twitter’s network. Executives of both companies have said their search sites would be considered incomplete if they didn’t include the millions of messages that get posted on Twitter every minute.

“We believe that our search results and user experience will greatly benefit from the inclusion of this up-to-the-minute data,” Marissa Mayer, Google’s vice president in charge of search products, said in a blog posting after the deals with Twitter were announced. “The next time you search for something that can be aided by a real-time observation, say, snow conditions at your favorite ski resort, you’ll find tweets from other users who are there.”

Consumer Tweets

Tweets also are a source of product information, with shoppers using Twitter to share views on their purchases. Making that kind of information available on Google and Bing may help them sell more advertising, and provide more relevant search results to shoppers.

Twitter, which started in 2006, has raised about $155 million in venture capital. A round in September for $100 million valued the company at $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the deal. The size of the valuation, along with Twitter’s lack of a revenue plan, was reminiscent of the dot-com era,David Garrity, principal at GVA Research LLC in New York, said at the time.

Since then, Twitter has given more details about how it plans to make money. In addition to the search deals, it’s planning an advertising program for early next year. The company also will charge for commercial Twitter accounts, which would let businesses analyze tweet traffic.

Chief Operating Officer Dick Costolo, who joined Twitter in September, was key to getting the search-engine deals done, one person familiar with the matter said. Costolo helped found FeedBurner and worked at Google as an ad product manager after his company was acquired.

At Feedburner , Costolo worked on selling ads on Web news feeds. The goal at Twitter now is to add advertising without disrupting the way Twitter works, Costolo said last month at a conference.

“We want to do something that’s organic and in the flow of the way people already use Twitter -- and not, ‘Here’s the tweets and here are the ads,’” he said.

Source-www.bloomberg.com

Oil Rebound

Oil Rebound

Oil’s biggest annual rally since 1999 is poised to continue with gains of at least 19 percent next year as the global economy recovers and OPEC curtails production, the most accurate crude forecasters say.

Societe Generale SA’s Mike Wittner and Hannes Loacker at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, whose predictions this year that were within 9 percent of market levels, now say oil will average $92.50 and $88, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from current prices of about $74 in New York. The median Wall Street estimate is for an increase to $83.

Oil is set to rise as China and India lead the world economy from its biggest economic shock since World War II, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries caps output, Wittner and Loacker said. Analysts say OPEC will keep supply targets unchanged at a meeting in Luanda, Angola, tomorrow, even as the International Energy Agency predicts fuel consumption will rise 1.7 percent next year.

“With global demand growing and OPEC holding production flat, stockpiles are going to come down, and that’s bullish for prices,” said Wittner, 48, the head of oil market research at Societe Generale in London. Commodities will also benefit from the weak dollar and U.S. interest rates close to zero percent, he said.

Iran-Iraq

Oil futures jumped 5 percent last week, the first weekly gain in a month, after Iranian forces occupied an oil well in neighboring Iraq, raising concern tensions between the two OPEC nations would disrupt supplies. The Iranian troops left the well Dec. 19, Iraq’s deputy minister of oil Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi told reporters in Baghdad yesterday.

Wittner, an analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency during the 1980s and the IEA in Paris between 1997 and 2002, said purchases by hedge funds and investors seeking protection from inflation will support prices.

“In contrast to some other banks, we acknowledge quite openly, and believe, that non-fundamental factors do play a role in setting oil prices,” said Wittner, who also worked at Koch Supply and Trading Co. and Credit Agricole SA’s investment banking unit Calyon, before joining SocGen in October 2007.

Oil futures have risen 66 percent this year because of OPEC’s output cut and economies recovering from the first global recession since World War II. The IEA forecasts consumption will increase in 2010, the first gain in three years.

Hurting Airlines

Higher oil prices will reward producers from Saudi Arabia to Exxon Mobil Corp., while hurting airlines that the International Air Transport Association forecast will lose $5.6 billion next year.

“Resources are getting scarce, especially if we go out two to three years from now,” said Gordon kwan, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong, who worked in Alaska as an engineer at BP Plc’s Prudhoe Bay, the biggest U.S. oil field.

Prudhoe Bay and its satellites pumped 357,360 barrels a day on Dec. 17, according to Alaska’s Department of revenue. In the 1980s, daily production was 1.5 million barrels a day.

“Right now scarcity is not a popular word because there’s plenty of inventory in the tanks,” Kwan said. “But once we have a synchronized global economic recovery, maybe 2011 onward, then we’ll see the word scarce coming into the picture.”

Oil Price Rallies

Monthly oil contracts for late 2010 trade between $75 and $80, limiting the potential returns for investors. A 20 percent rally from current levels would lag behind the 57 percent gain in 2007 and 40 percent in 2005. Last year, oil started at $99.62 and rose as high as $147.27 before crashing and ending the year at $44.60 a barrel.

The third most-accurate oil forecaster, Commerzbank AG senior analyst Fugen Weinberg, predicts oil will fall to $59 in the fourth quarter of 2010 because OPEC will increase supplies.

“Next year, I see risk from the downside,” Weinberg said. “OPEC discipline is receding, and I think this will continue.”

Until there’s evidence of improved demand in developed nations “and real discipline from OPEC, then prices have increased prematurely,” Weinberg said.

For the Bloomberg survey, analysts’ forecasts between December 2008 and January 2009 were compared with actual prices. The average total for the 21 analysts surveyed was off by 18 percent, with Economist Intelligence Unit, Natixis Bleichroeder Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG farthest away.

Dollar Impact

Deutsche Bank predicts a decline of 19 percent to an average of $60 a barrel a year from now as the dollar strengthens.

“In all likelihood the dollar will be putting downward pressure on the oil market, or at least take away a support,” said Deutsche Bank Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski in Washington.

OPEC will probably make no changes to output quotas when it meets tomorrow in Luanda, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 36 analysts last week. Last month the group pumped about 2 million barrels a day less than it did a year earlier as it works through a promised 4.2 million barrel-a-day supply cut.

The group has a consensus to make “no change” to quotas, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri told reporters in Luanda today.

Members from Algeria, Kuwait, Libya and Qatar have also signaled no need to change quotas, while Iran and Nigeria said the group’s target is unlikely to be altered. Venezuela wants to keep prices above $70.

According to Loacker, who joined Raiffeisen seven years ago, an OPEC decision to hold supply little changed at a time of rising consumption will tighten supplies as output from countries outside the organization lags behind estimates.

“Some forecasts are too optimistic” on non-OPEC supply growth, he said. “There is potential for less good surprises in production.”

Crude Oil and Commodity Prices
December, Monday 21 2009 - 13:08:53

Crude Oil $73.30 ▼0.06 0.08% 13:09 PM EST - 2009.12.21

Source-www.bloomberg.com